2009年7月21日 星期二

<轉載>迷債回購方案中投資者和銀行損益計算表-對銀行不但無懲罰性,反而有得賺 ?


以下為 J.Y.先生 從新聞中收集相關的迷債回購方案,加上整理得到一的列表,歸納而成的迷債回購方案中投資者和銀行損益計算表.


大家細看一下以下整理得到一的列表,便會發覺在某些情况下銀行的損失居然比投資者為少,甚致有得賺,剩餘價愈高和投資者在抵押品出售後剩餘價值餘的攤分比率愈低,銀行有得賺機會愈高及賺得愈多,

證監會表示考慮和解方案時,會根據3項原則,
一是能否補償投資者損失、
二是有關機構能否確保日後避免再犯及改善錯失、
三是要反映若干懲罰性。

現在的迷債回購方案, 對銀行不但無懲罰性,反而有得賺 ?
和解方案究竟主要是在懲罰誰?懲罰錯誤地信任了銀行的香港市民們?

以下計算未包括
- 銀行銷售迷債所收到的傭金,(對於一個4年期的迷債系列,在4年內,銀行通常是每年都收到相應之傭金);
- 投資者己收取的利息(傳有銀行要求扣除相關利息);
- 以及銀行的手續費(傳銀行傾向免收手續費),


================================================

<列表-1> ' 60%+10% ' 回購方案中投資者和銀行損益計算表.
[ 銀行按投資本金之 60% 回購,
抵押品出售後的餘價值的首 10% 歸還投資者,
若還有餘款,首 60% 屬銀行,
若再有餘款,會全屬投資者。 ]

[抵押品售後價值] 投資者實收 投資者(損失) 銀行損/賺
-----------------------------------------------
5% 65.00% (35.00%) (60.00%)
10% 70.00% (30.00%) (60.00%)
15% 70.00% (30.00%) (55.00%)
20% 70.00% (30.00%) (50.00%)
25% 70.00% (30.00%) (45.00%)
30% 70.00% (30.00%) (40.00%)
35% 70.00% (30.00%) (35.00%)
40% 70.00% (30.00%) (30.00%)
45% 70.00% (30.00%) (25.00%)
50% 70.00% (30.00%) (20.00%)
55% 70.00% (30.00%) (15.00%)
60% 70.00% (30.00%) (10.00%)
65% 70.00% (30.00%) (5.00%)
70% 70.00% (30.00%) 0.00%
75% 75.00% (25.00%) 0.00%
80% 80.00% (20.00%) 0.00%
85% 85.00% (15.00%) 0.00%
90% 90.00% (10.00%) 0.00%
95% 95.00% (5.00%) 0.00%
100% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%

=======================================================

<列表-2> 根據傳聞之迷債回購方案 :
按投資本金之 60% 回購, 再加相當於抵押品出售後總值的某個百分比.

[ 抵押品出售後價值 ] 預期投資者在抵押品出售後剩餘價值餘的攤分比率
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[5% | 投資者實收 ] 62.00% 61.75% 61.50% 61.25% 61.00% 60.75% 60.50% 60.25%
| 投資者((損失)](38.00%) (38.25%) (38.50%) (38.75%) (39.00%) (39.25%) (39.50%) (39.75%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (57.00%) (56.75%) (56.50%) (56.25%) (56.00%) (55.75%) (55.50%) (55.25%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[10% | 投資者實收 ] 64.00% 63.50% 63.00% 62.50% 62.00% 61.50% 61.00% 60.50%
| 投資者(損失)] (36.00%) (36.50%) (37.00%) (37.50%) (38.00%) (38.50%) (39.00%) (39.50%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (54.00%) (53.50%) (53.00%) (52.50%) (52.00%) (51.50%) (51.00%) (50.50%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[15%| 投資者實收 ] 66.00% 65.25% 64.50% 63.75% 63.00% 62.25% 61.50% 60.75%
| 投資者(損失) ] (34.00%) (34.75%) (35.50%) (36.25%) (37.00%) (37.75%) (38.50%) (39.25%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (51.00%) (50.25%) (49.50%) (48.75%) (48.00%) (47.25%) (46.50%) (45.75%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[20%| 投資者實收 ] 68.00% 67.00% 66.00% 65.00% 64.00% 63.00% 62.00% 61.00%
| 投資者(損失) ](32.00%) (33.00%) (34.00%) (35.00%) (36.00%) (37.00%) (38.00%) (39.00%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (48.00%) (47.00%) (46.00%) (45.00%) (44.00%) (43.00%) (42.00%) (41.00%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[25%| 投資者實收 ] 70.00% 68.75% 67.50% 66.25% 65.00% 63.75% 62.50% 61.25%
| 投資者(損失) ] (30.00%) (31.25%) (32.50%) (33.75%) (35.00%) (36.25%) (37.50%) (38.75%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (45.00%) (43.75%) (42.50%) (41.25%) (40.00%) (38.75%) (37.50%) (36.25%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[30%| 投資者實收 ] 72.00% 70.50% 69.00% 67.50% 66.00% 64.50% 63.00% 61.50%
| 投資者(損失) ] (28.00%) (29.50%) (31.00%) (32.50%) (34.00%) (35.50%) (37.00%) (38.50%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (42.00%) (40.50%) (39.00%) (37.50%) (36.00%) (34.50%) (33.00%) (31.50%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[35%| 投資者實收 ] 74.00% 72.25% 70.50% 68.75% 67.00% 65.25% 63.50% 61.75%
| 投資者(損失) ](26.00%) (27.75%) (29.50%) (31.25%) (33.00%) (34.75%) (36.50%) (38.25%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](39.00%) (37.25%) (35.50%) (33.75%) (32.00%) (30.25%) (28.50%) (26.75%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[40%| 投資者實收 ] 76.00% 74.00% 72.00% 70.00% 68.00% 66.00% 64.00% 62.00%
| 投資者(損失) ](24.00%) (26.00%) (28.00%) (30.00%) (32.00%) (34.00%) (36.00%) (38.00%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](36.00%) (34.00%) (32.00%) (30.00%) (28.00%) (26.00%) (24.00%) (22.00%) ————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[45%| 投資者實收 ] 78.00% 75.75% 73.50% 71.25% 69.00% 66.75% 64.50% 62.25%
| 投資者(損失) ] (22.00%) (24.25%) (26.50%) (28.75%) (31.00%) (33.25%) (35.50%) (37.75%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](33.00%) (30.75%) (28.50%) (26.25%) (24.00%) (21.75%) (19.50%) (17.25%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[50%| 投資者實收 ] 80.00% 77.50% 75.00% 72.50% 70.00% 67.50% 65.00% 62.50%
| 投資者(損失) ](20.00%) (22.50%) (25.00%) (27.50%) (30.00%) (32.50%) (35.00%) (37.50%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](30.00%) (27.50%) (25.00%) (22.50%) (20.00%) (17.50%) (15.00%) (12.50%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[55%| 投資者實收 ] 82.00% 79.25% 76.50% 73.75% 71.00% 68.25% 65.50% 62.75%
| 投資者(損失) ](18.00%) (20.75%) (23.50%) (26.25%) (29.00%) (31.75%) (34.50%) (37.25%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](27.00%) (24.25%) (21.50%) (18.75%) (16.00%) (13.25%) (10.50%) 7.75%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[60%| 投資者實收 ] 84.00% 81.00% 78.00% 75.00% 72.00% 69.00% 66.00% 63.00%
| 投資者(損失) ](16.00%) (19.00%) (22.00%) (25.00%) (28.00%) (31.00%) (34.00%) (37.00%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ](24.00%) (21.00%) (18.00%) (15.00%) (12.00%) (9.00%) (6.00%) (3.00%)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[65%| 投資者實收 ] 86.00% 82.75% 79.50% 76.25% 73.00% 69.75% 66.50% 63.25%
| 投資者(損失) ] (14.00%) (17.25%) (20.50%) (23.75%) (27.00%) (30.25%) (33.50%) (36.75%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (21.00%) (17.75%) (14.50%) (11.25%) (8.00%) (4.75%) (1.50%) 1.75%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[70%| 投資者實收 ] 88.00% 84.50% 81.00% 77.50% 74.00% 70.50% 67.00% 63.50%
| 投資者(損失) ](12.00%) (15.50%) (19.00%) (22.50%) (26.00%) (29.50%) (33.00%) (36.50%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (18.00%) (14.50% ) (11.00%) (7.50%) (4.00%) (0.50%) 3.00% 6.50%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[75%| 投資者實收 ] 90.00% 86.25% 82.50% 78.75% 75.00% 71.25% 67.50% 63.75%
| 投資者(損失) ] (10.00%) (13.75%) (17.50%) (21.25%) (25.00%) (28.75%) (32.50%) (36.25%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (15.00%) (11.25%) (7.50%) ( 3.75%) 0.00% 3.75% 7.50% 11.25%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[80%| 投資者實收 ] 92.00% 88.00% 84.00% 80.00% 76.00% 72.00% 68.00% 64.00%
| 投資者(損失) ](8.00%) (12.00%) (16.00%) (20.00%) (24.00%) (28.00%) (32.00%) (36.00%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (12.00%) (8.00%) (4.00%) 0.00% 4.00% 8.00% 12.00% 16.00%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[85%| 投資者實收 ] 94.00% 89.75% 85.50% 81.25% 77.00% 72.75% 68.50% 64.25%
| 投資者(損失) ] (6.00%) (10.25%) (14.50%) (18.75%) (23.00%) (27.25%) (31.50%) (35.75%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (9.00%) ( 4.75%) (0.50%) 3.75% 8.00% 12.25% 16.50% 20.75%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[90%| 投資者實收 ] 96.00% 91.50% 87.00% 82.50% 78.00% 73.50% 69.00% 64.50%
| 投資者(損失) ](4.00%) 8.50%) (13.00%) (17.50%) (22.00%) (26.50%) (31.00%) (35.50%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (6.00%) (1.50%) 3.00% 7.50% 12.00% 16.50% 21.00% 25.50%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[95%| 投資者實收 ] 98.00% 93.25% 88.50% 83.75% 79.00% 74.25% 69.50% 64.75%
| 投資者(損失) ](2.00%) 6.75%) (11.50%) (16.25%) (21.00%) (25.75%) (30.50%) (35.25%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] (3.00%) 1.75% 6.50% 11.25% 16.00% 20.75% 25.50% 30.25%
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
[100% | 投資者實收 ] 100.00% 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00%
| 投資者(損失) ] 0.00% 5.00%) (10.00%) (15.00%) (20.00%) (25.00%) (30.00%) (35.00%)
| 銀行(損)/賺 ] 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
=====================================================
   

計算方程式:

投資者實收 = 按投資本金之 60% 回購 + 投資者在抵押品出售後剩餘價值餘的攤分比率
投資者損失 = 投資本金之100% - 投資者實收
銀行損/賺 = 投資者損失 - 銀行在抵押品出售後剩餘價值餘的攤分比率

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